2015 SOUTHEAST ALASKA PINK SALMON HARVEST FORECAST

The Southeast Alaska pink salmon harvest in 2015 is predicted to be in the excellent range, with a point estimate of 58 million fish (80% confidence interval: 37–79 million fish). An actual harvest of 58 million pink salmon would be well above the recent 10-year average of 41 million pink salmon and a harvest of that magnitude would be in the top ten harvests since 1960. The 2015 forecast was produced in two steps: 1) a forecast of the trend in the harvest, and 2) the forecast trend adjusted using 2014 juvenile pink salmon abundance data provided by the NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Auke Bay Laboratories. A brief discussion and description of the forecast methods can be found at:

http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=commercialbyareasoutheast.salmon#forecasts

Department staff will be available to discuss this forecast and plan for the 2015 season at the SE Alaska Purse Seine Task Force Meeting scheduled for December 3, 2014, in Petersburg. In addition, staff from the NOAA Auke Bay Laboratories plan to attend this meeting and present their 2015 pink salmon harvest forecast for Southeast Alaska.

 

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